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মহামারীর ঝুঁকি ও ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন প্রতিষ্ঠানের সক্ষমতা

October 1st, 2020 by

ড. ফারহানা নার্গিস
সেপ্টেম্বর ২৯, ২০২০
অতীতকাল থেকেই বাংলাদেশের ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলো (এমএফআই) স্থানীয় ও জাতীয় পর্যায়ে প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগ ও অন্যান্য জরুরি অবস্থা মোকাবেলায় অসামান্য সক্ষমতা দেখিয়ে আসছে। কভিড-১৯-এর প্রাদুর্ভাবের ফলে বাংলাদেশের অর্থনীতি মারাত্মকভাবে ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত হয়েছে। এটা অনস্বীকার্য যে সবচেয়ে বেশি ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত হয়েছে দিনমজুর ও ক্ষুদ্র ব্যবসায়ীগোষ্ঠী, যারা দৈনিক আয়ের ওপর নির্ভরশীল। অর্থনৈতিক কর্মকাণ্ডে বাধার কারণে দেশের বেশির ভাগ পরিবারের আয় কমে গেছে, বিশেষত দরিদ্র পরিবারগুলোর যারা অপ্রাতিষ্ঠানিক অকৃষিকাজের (যেমন নির্মাণকাজ ও গ্রামীণ অকৃষি খাত) ওপর নির্ভরশীল। এই পরিবারগুলোর বেশির ভাগই তাদের অর্থনৈতিক কর্মকাণ্ডের জন্য এমএফআইগুলোর ঋণ ও অন্যান্য কর্মসূচি থেকে সহায়তা লাভ করে।

বর্তমান পরিস্থিতিতে এমএফআইগুলোর জন্য একটি বড় সমস্যা হচ্ছে ভবিষ্যৎ কার্যক্রম নির্ধারণ করা। কারণ আগামী দিনগুলোয় ঠিক কত সময়, কত শক্তিশালীভাবে কভিড-১৯-এর সংকট অব্যাহত থাকবে, তা অনেকটাই অজানা। সুতরাং এ পরিস্থিতিতে কভিড-১৯-এর প্রভাব থেকে উত্তরণের জন্য এমএফআইগুলো বেশ কয়েকটি বিষয় বিবেচনা করতে পারে।

এমএফআইগুলোর জন্য নগদ অর্থপ্রবাহের অন্যতম নির্ভরযোগ্য উৎস হচ্ছে ঋণ পরিশোধ (repayment of loan)। এর পরই রয়েছে ঋণগ্রহীতার সঞ্চয়, ব্যাংক ও আর্থিক প্রতিষ্ঠান থেকে ঋণ। অন্যদিকে অর্থের প্রধান প্রধান ব্যয়ের খাত হচ্ছে ঋণ বিতরণ, ঋণদাতার ঋণ পরিশোধ, কর্মীদের বেতন প্রদান এবং অফিস ও অন্যান্য ব্যয়। কিন্তু বর্তমান সময়ে ঋণ পরিশোধের মতো গুরুত্বপূর্ণ উৎসটি সবচেয়ে ঝুঁকির মধ্যে রয়েছে। ব্যাংকগুলোও এমএফআইগুলোকে ঋণ দেয়ার ক্ষেত্রে একটা ‘wait and watch mode’-এ রয়েছে বলে প্রতীয়মান হয়। অতীতে ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলো প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগের সময় ঋণ পরিশোধের হার তুলনামূলকভাবে দ্রুতগতিতে (কয়েক মাসের মধ্যে) পুনরুদ্ধার করতে পেরেছিল। বর্তমানেও এটা করা সম্ভব হতে পারে, যেমন ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন ঋণ আরো ভালোভাবে তদারক করা, বিশেষ করে অর্থায়নের পর উৎপাদনশীল কার্যক্রম শুরু হওয়ার মধ্যবর্তী সময়ে। এক্ষেত্রে কয়েক মাসের জন্য নতুন ঋণ বিতরণ কার্যক্রম যথাসম্ভব সীমিত করে তহবিল সীমাবদ্ধতা কাটিয়ে ওঠার প্রচেষ্টা নেয়া যেতে পারে, যা এমএফআইগুলোর নগদ অর্থপ্রবাহ সঠিকভাবে পরিচালনা করার ক্ষেত্রে সহায়তা করবে।

অন্যদিকে এমএফআইগুলোকে কর্মীদের বেতন, অফিস ব্যয়, ঋণদাতাদের ঋণের কিস্তি এবং অন্যান্য নিয়মিত ব্যয় বহন করতে হচ্ছে। যদিও বড় এমএফআইগুলোর জন্য এটি কোনো বড় সমস্যা না-ও হতে পারে। তবে ছোট ও মাঝারি এমএফআইগুলোর টিকে থাকার জন্য এটি বড় চ্যালেঞ্জ। এক্ষেত্রে আরো ব্যয়সাশ্রয়ী কীভাবে হওয়া যায়, সে বিষয়গুলো বিবেচনা করে বাস্তবসম্মত ব্যবস্থা নেয়া জরুরি হয়ে পড়েছে এমএফআইগুলোর জন্য।

এমএফআইগুলোর জন্য সবচেয়ে বড় চ্যালেঞ্জ হলো মহামারীর পরে তাদের কার্যক্রমের টেকসইতা সুরক্ষা করা। তবে বর্তমান নভেল করোনাভাইরাস সংকটের জন্য, সংকটের পরিমাণ এবং সময়কালের ওপর নির্ভর করে স্বাভাবিক অবস্থায় ফিরে আসার জন্য ১২ থেকে ১৮ মাস সময় হয়তো লাগতে পারে; যা পুরোটাই কিন্তু অনিশ্চিত। সংক্রমণের তীব্রতা কমে গেলে এবং এমএফআইয়ের মাঠকর্মীরা অবাধে চলাচল করতে পারলে দ্রততার সঙ্গে স্বাভাবিক অবস্থা ফিরে পাওয়ার জন্য এখনই কৌশল নির্ধারণ করতে হবে।

অতীত অভিজ্ঞতা থেকে দেখা যায় যে ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন গ্রহীতারা সাধারণত তাদের অর্থনৈতিক ক্রিয়াকলাপ পুনরুদ্ধারে বেশ দ্রুত অগ্রসর হতে পারে। এমএফআইগুলোর ঝুঁকিপূর্ণ পোর্টফোলিও সাধারণত পুরোপুরি কার্যক্রম শুরু হওয়ার পরে দুই-তিন কোয়ার্টারের মধ্যে হ্রাস পায়। যদিও বর্তমান পরিস্থিতিতে হয়তো এমএফআইগুলোকে কিছু কুঋণের মুখোমুখি হতে হবে, ঋণের চাহিদা বেড়ে গেলে (যেহেতু গ্রাহকদের তাদের ব্যবসা পুনঃস্থাপনের জন্য তারল্যের প্রয়োজন) এই লোকসানের ক্ষতিপূরণ করা খুব একটা কষ্টকর হবে না।

কিছু ঋণগ্রহীতার অবশ্য ঋণ পরিশোধের জন্য অতিরিক্ত সময়ের প্রয়োজন হতে পারে, যার জন্য ঋণ পরিশোধের সময়কাল কিছুটা বাড়ানো প্রয়োজন হতে পারে। এজন্য কিস্তিগুলো কিছুটা নমনীয় করা যেতে পারে। তবে অতীতের অভিজ্ঞতা থেকে এটা বলা যায় যে বেশির ভাগ বকেয়া ঋণ এমএফআইগুলোয় ফিরে আসবে। এমএফআইগুলো এরই মধ্যে গ্রাহকদের আর্থিক তারল্যের চাপের সঙ্গে মোকাবেলার কার্যকর অভিজ্ঞতা অর্জন করেছে, যা বর্তমান পরিস্থিতিতে নিঃসন্দেহে তাদের কৌশল নির্ধারণ করতে সহায়তা করবে।

নভেল করোনাভাইরাস থেকে সংক্রমণের আশঙ্কা নিঃসন্দেহে এমএফআইগুলোর মাঠ পর্যায়ের কর্মীদের মনোবল ও কাজের দক্ষতায় বেশ প্রভাব ফেলেছে। এই মানসিক শঙ্কা দূর করার জন্য এমএফআইগুলোকে কর্মীদের নিরাপত্তা নিশ্চিত করার প্রয়োজনীয় ব্যবস্থা যেমন স্বাস্থ্যনিরাপত্তা উপকরণ সরবরাহ করা, স্বাস্থ্য বীমা অথবা অন্যান্য সহায়তা প্রদানের ব্যবস্থা নেয়া উচিত হবে।

মাঠকর্মীদেরও তাদের নিজ নিজ কর্ম এলাকায় মহামারীটির অবস্থান সম্পর্কে সচেতন হতে হবে এবং সেই অনুযায়ী ব্যবস্থা নিতে হবে। সিনিয়রদের মাঠের কর্মীদের গাইড করতে হবে এবং তাদের সঙ্গে অবিচ্ছিন্ন যোগাযোগ নিশ্চিত করতে হবে। এক্ষেত্রে সাংগঠনিক কার্যক্রমের জন্য উপযুক্ত ব্যবস্থা কৌশল নির্ধারণের জন্য মাঠ স্তর থেকে প্রতিক্রিয়াগুলো সংশ্লিষ্ট কর্তৃপক্ষের কাছে দ্রুততার সঙ্গে আদান-প্রদানের ব্যবস্থা যথেষ্ট কার্যকর হবে। মাঠকর্মীদের কভিড-১৯ পরবর্তী সময়ে স্বাস্থ্য ও স্বাস্থ্যবিধি সম্পর্কে কার্যকর যোগাযোগকারী এবং তাদের সদস্যদের কাছে রোল মডেল হিসেবে গণ্য করার ব্যবস্থা গ্রহণ যথেষ্ট সুফল আনতে পারে। কর্মীদের নিজের সুরক্ষার পাশাপাশি গ্রাহকদের কাছে সর্বোত্তম অনুশীলনগুলো তুলে ধরার ব্যবস্থা মাঠ পর্যায়ে অধিক ভূমিকা রাখবে।

অতীতে বাংলাদেশের এমএফআইগুলো অনেক চ্যালেঞ্জ ও সংকটের সম্মুখীন হয়েছে। পরবর্তী সময়ে এমএফআইগুলো কিন্তু আরো শক্তিশালী হয়ে তাদের কার্যক্রম বাস্তবায়ন করেছে। কোনো সন্দেহ নেই যে কভিড-১৯ ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন খাতের জন্য একটি গুরুতর সংকট। তবে অতীতের অভিজ্ঞতা প্রমাণ করে এই খাত সফলতার সঙ্গে সংকটের মুখোমুখি হওয়ার ক্ষমতা ও দক্ষতা অর্জন করেছে। নিঃসন্দেহে ক্ষুদ্র অর্থায়ন প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলো করোনা-পরবর্তী সময়ে আরো দক্ষতার সঙ্গে সারা বাংলাদেশে তাদের লাখ লাখ দরিদ্র ও সুবিধাবঞ্চিত সদস্যের প্রয়োজনীয় এই সেবা প্রদানের অতীত সাফল্যকে আরো উজ্জ্বলতর করতে সক্ষম হবে।

ড. ফারহানা নার্গিস: রিসার্চ ফেলো

ইনস্টিটিউট ফর ইনক্লুসিভ ফিন্যান্স অ্যান্ড ডেভেলপমেন্ট (আইএনএম)

Monetary policy geared to post-pandemic financial stability

July 10th, 2020 by

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 Mustafa K. Mujeri |  July 10, 2020 00:00:00


Within a period of less than four months of the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic in Bangladesh, the economy has seriously been affected by a sharp decline in external demand, shocks in supply due to disruptions in global and domestic value chains, impact of lockdown and large scale job losses on domestic demand, stress on consumer and business environments, and deepening inequality and high incidence of economic and social uncertainties. So far, the impact has been all-encompassing and unprecedented, but its degree is still uncertain since the intensity of the pandemic is yet to be fully felt in the country.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is felt not just by the national economy, but by the household economy of millions of Bangladeshis, especially the low income ones. Daily wage earners and informal workers have already been badly hit; many have nothing to live on now and are unable to buy adequate food for their families. Hunger, malnutrition, and other problems that have always plagued Bangladesh in the past are poised to intensify as a result of the pandemic.

The economic impact has mainly been felt through three major channels: (i) sharp decline in domestic economic activity after the shutdown announced on March 26, 2020 which is now gradually being lifted; (ii) unprecedented decline in exports of RMGs, which represent more than 80.0 per cent of Bangladesh’s exports; and (iii) rapid fall (from US$ 1.64 billion in January 2020 to USD 1.09 billion in April2020) in remittances from Bangladeshis working mostly in the Middle East who are affected not by the pandemic alone but also by the decline in oil prices.

Within a few weeks of the outbreak of Covid-19, Bangladesh instituted stringent measures to limit its spread through imposing a national lockdown in which air, bus, and train travel was suspended. As a result of these measures and Covid-19 related impacts, supply chains especially of essential commodities were disrupted and access to food staples became limited. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is still under limited lockdown and has launched the largest social welfare efforts in its history.

The government reacted promptly and allocated about US$29.0 million to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare to fund the Covid-19 preparedness and response plan. To start with, a stimulus package of $588.0 million for export-oriented industries was announced. So far, the government has announced a total of 19 stimulus packages amounting to Tk 1,031.17 billion (3.70 per cent of GDP) to support the country’s economic recovery.

It appears that if recovery is fast (the so-called V-shaped recovery), economic activities may start to rebound by the end of 2020. However, the critical factor is the recovery of the domestic economy in all its dimensions which is still shrouded in many uncertainties with regard to both timing and the precision of the recovery’s speed or the extent.

Against this background, the country’s monetary policy needs to target the recovery of the economy from the disaster of Covid-19 and rehabilitation of the production capacity of the economy as its major goals along with restoration of the livelihoods of the people especially of the vulnerable groups who are the most severely affected by the pandemic.

We must also recognise that empirical evidence shows that the relationship between the monetary policy aggregates (e.g. money supply) and inflation (price level) is becoming increasingly ineffective in Bangladesh so that price stability as the dominant strategic target of Bangladesh Bank’s monetary policy is losing its credibility and guidance. The impact of money supply on inflation is becoming increasingly non-linear and asymmetric with long and variable lags; while globalisation, technological change and frequent supply shocks cause structural changes in the behaviour of inflation. This will probably be more so during Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath in Bangladesh. As such, Bangladesh needs to explicitly consider these changes and formulate the monetary policy accordingly.

KEY ASPECTS OF TWO-PHASED MONETARY POLICY: The key consideration for the country’s monetary policy would be to adopt a medium to long term anti-Covid-19 strategy that goes beyond the already adopted one-shot policy measures by the Bangladesh Bank (e.g. changes in CRR; changes in interest rate on loans provided by Bangladesh Bank to scheduled banks and financial institutions under REPO facility; changes in ADR and IDR; new refinancing facilities with low interest rates to facilitate the implementation of incentive packages and support important sectors like agriculture, export-oriented industries and CMSMEs; etc.) to overcome the adverse effects of Covid-19 on the Bangladesh economy.

The strategy, moreover, should take note of past lessons, avoid past mistakes, minimise risks to financial instability, and facilitate the rapid movement to a ‘new normalcy’ through fixing the Covid-19 damages. Obviously, the focus should be on Covid-19 crisis management.

The above monetary policy strategy could be implemented within a phased approach. For the initial period (e.g. next six months), efforts could be devoted more towards further strengthening and consolidating (and adopting new measures as necessary for deeply affected sectors/enterprises)the immediate measures taken by Bangladesh Bank for meeting the Covid-19 shock; while starting to implement the medium to long term measures of the second phase adopting right sequencing.

In both phases, the anti-COVID-19 monetary policies should take into account the main reasons behind adopting the monetary strategies to address the challenges. The reasons could be multiple, but preparing a comprehensive list could help prioritise the policies and identify their short and medium term implications and synergies. One key aspect would be to introduce a system of regular monitoring to conduct strategic reviews and redesign the policy framework based on changing realities.

The main task of the monetary policy, especially during the next six months, will be to ensure adequate liquidity in the economy; which has been affected by a sudden and unexpected supply shock – large-scale disruption in all production sectors caused by health precautions and lockdown. This has also triggered a severe demand shock which has interrupted cash flows and the payments system. In order to revive the enterprises and restore employment, Bangladesh Bank should further push the commercial banks to especially lend to the enterprises where the cash-flow process is more disrupted.

This would require, for the Bangladesh Bank, to provide the framework of monetary measures, including interest rate incentives for the banks, to further expand the credit support especially to the CMSMEs. There should also be coordination with prudential measures and fiscal policy decisions. Special provision should be made on prudential ground regarding the treatment of bad loans that is probably inevitable (to a certain extent)in the case of these loans. Fiscal policy support should also be soughtfrom the government to guarantee a part of these loans. Bangladesh Bank should also be prepared to undertake purchases of bonds and commercial papers as necessary to ensure liquidity in the financial market needed for controlling COVID-19 consequences and avoiding financial meltdown.

Moreover, Bangladesh Bank should remain aware that wrong and/or inadequate action during this period would lengthen/deepen the short term crisis, trigger/escalate the crisis, and make the follow-up phase of recovery more complex and difficult. The Covid-19 shock has not only affected the already bad health of the financial (including the banking) sector of the country but also all aspects of the real and other sectors of the economy. The risk of a disastrous outcome from the combined impact of this all-encompassing crisis is therefore real; moreover, Bangladesh also faces a more unfavourable global economy with disrupted trade and capital flows.

At the end of the first phase, the expectation is that the health crisis of the pandemic will be substantially controlled; production and trade will start to resume normal speed; and the financial sector will come to terms, at least partially, with the deep scars of the crisis. However, the serious wounds will continue to persist in both the real and financial sector of the economy-high uncertainties will continue to affect investments (particularly private investment); aggregate consumption will remain depressed due to loss in employment/income; and overall economic activities and growth prospects will remain below their normal trajectories.

The medium and longer term measures will sequentially start, depending on the realities in the second half of the time frame, to cure the wounds, ensure sustained recovery, and re-launch normal economic activities and growth. As expected, some measures may be long term in nature and may have to be extended to a longer time horizon. One key aspect of these policies will be to ensure a close coordination between monetary and fiscal policies where fiscal policies will play the lead role while monetary policy will take the supportive role. Bangladesh Bank will have to ensure the coordination with fiscal authorities and provide technical and financial support as feasible to policy implementation. Relying on monetary expansion alone to fix the problems would more likely to be ineffective and unsustainable. Excessive money and credit supply along with fiscal expansion and the continuing negative supply shocks from Covid-19 could fuel inflationary pressures.

The fiscal policies of the medium phase would have to cover both redistributive measures and increased public expenditures, transfers and tax reliefs for individuals/enterprises which are more likely to be debt-financed. However, one must also realise that the quality of the fiscal measures and their implementation is probably more important than their size. The resulting increase in public debt would partly substitute unsustainable private debts helping enterprises and households to regenerate their capital destroyed by Covid-19 and its economic impacts.

The role of the monetary policy will be to effectively structure the newly accumulated public debt, monitor the liquidity situation of the banks, keep the interest rates low, and address any destructive speculative developments and contain interest rate spreads within limits. This is necessary to avoid any undesirable changes in risk premium that would limit the financial sector’s efficiency in resource allocation. A major concern of the monetary policy framework should be to ensure financial stability and its sustainability especially in the post-Covid-19 period when there will be rapid increases in public debt and widespread restructuring of private enterprises and their financial portfolio.

For the external sector, the policies should favour stable exchange rates. The policies should recognise that, although Covid-19 shocks may be similar, their economic consequences have been highly asymmetric across countries in terms of timing, nature of socioeconomic impact, reactions and combating strategy for health and economic impacts, and, above all, their financial and structural weaknesses and capacities to combat the crisis. Moreover, global spill over effects will continue for long creating differential effects on individual countries including Bangladesh.

For Bangladesh, monetary and prudential policies will have to act together where the main preoccupation will be restoring normalcy in the economy without jeopardising financial stability. The policies should also remain cautious of the fact that the degree of indebtedness of the economy will significantly increase as a result of the policies for addressing Covid-19 challenges. Financial fragilities may gradually emerge as a dominant theme in the financial sector. Bangladesh Bank should therefore adopt a work plan and announce the framework well in advance in coordination with fiscal and other macro policies. This will help anchor expectations and reassure all stakeholders on the existence of a coordinating procedure to cope with the Covid-19 crisis. In the post-Covid period, the Bangladesh Bank should consider widening the mandate of monetary policy to cover macro-financial stability, not price stability alone, along with economic growth.

A key concern would be to act quickly and decisively to provide liquidity to prevent financial instability from leading to further deterioration of the real economy. Along with this, for ensuring long-run growth necessary to restore economic well-being, Bangladesh Bank would have to adapt to new realities for using financial markets to ensure required liquidity, not through manipulating interest rates to finance government deficit and providing cheap credit to CMSMEs and other priority activities.

For the medium term, Bangladesh Bank should also step up providing credit for green investment and employment stimulus, as the lockdown measures are gradually relaxed and withdrawn. What matters most is the enhanced role of monetary policy to create employment and reconnect the supply chains and assist in the transition to higher growth and sustainability.

Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri is Executive Director, Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM).

mujeri48@gmail.com

Covid-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: Are we the next Italy?

April 18th, 2020 by

Published at 04:48 pm April 18th, 2020

 Farah Muneer and Abdul Monem Khan

After week 6, Italy had an average cumulative death rate of 6.29%, compared to 6.70% in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is crossing its 6th week of the coronavirus pandemic and things have dramatically changed since the first month. 

Observing the world trend it was quite expected that the infection rate would go up exponentially at some point of time and coping up with it would be a great challenge for a country like Bangladesh. Even though the country is currently under lockdown along with complete movement restriction after 6pm, the infection rate as a percentage of total tested has gone up almost three times higher since the 4th week. 

 

Fig 1: Average Cumulative Death Rate, Week 1-Week 6, shown in percentage of the infected population

Fig 2: Recovery rate as of Week 6, shown in percentage of the infected population

Source: Data from Bangladesh Directorate of Health Service and  Worldometer

As of April 17, 2020 the infection rate as a percentage of total tests conducted is around 9.58%. Furthermore, Bangladesh has been observing higher death count than recovery count for the past four days. The number of tests conducted is still very low compared to the other countries, probably the lowest if some Sub-Saharan African countries are not taken into account. On an average only 117 people in a million are tested for Covid-19 in Bangladesh. On the other hand, in India the figure is more than double. In Pakistan it is 383 in 1 million. So, how is Bangladesh performing compared to other countries?

The first figure compared the average cumulative death rate of Bangladesh with some of the most infected countries and some of our neighbouring countries from week 1 to week 6 of the corona pandemic.

In Bangladesh for every one hundred Covid-19 infected persons, the average cumulative death rate is 6.70% as per the latest data, which is very alarming. It is important to observe that after week 6, Italy had an average cumulative death rate of 6.29%, which implies that Bangladesh has surpassed Italy. 

Italy has just got past its 8th week of the pandemic and is currently experiencing the highest death rate  — 13.12 in every 100 infected persons — which means the coming weeks can be the most crucial for Bangladesh. 

It is also important to note that the neighbouring countries are doing much better than Bangladesh. What is surprising is that India and Pakistan, on week 6 had an average death rate of less than 1%. The second figure shows the recovery rate as of week 6 of the pandemic. In terms of recovery rate, Bangladesh has yet to go a long way when compared to India and Pakistan or even with Italy. 

The recovery incidence in Bangladesh is around 3 in every 100 infected persons. Even though the situation is better than that of the United Kingdom and the United States, it is far below than the world average which is around 25% as of April 17.

The figures above indicate quite an alarming scenario ahead for Bangladesh. It seems that Bangladesh might face very high death rates in the coming weeks like Italy if proper intervention is not initiated. Coupled with a high death rate, Bangladesh might experience one of the lowest recovery rates in the world if the current trend continues, which makes the scenario even worse than Italy. 

It is, therefore, high time to make some policy changes to combat this pandemic in Bangladesh. As the healthcare system of Bangladesh is yet to cope with the challenges of the outbreak, it seems defensive strategy is the best solution for Bangladesh to control the Covid-19 incidences. 

Italy has already spent more than a month of strict lockdown and decided to extend it till May 3 with some exceptions with regards to businesses such as timber companies, bookshops and stores selling children’s supplies. 

India has also extended the lockdown till May 3. It took China nearly two months to come out of lockdown. These examples indicate the importance of lockdown only to ‘flatten the curve’ so that the country can strengthen its capacity, especially the healthcare sector to fight the Covid-19 war.

Comparing the lockdown status with other countries, Bangladesh should extend the strict lockdown at least for a few more weeks after April 25. The decision to reopen the garment factories could be catastrophic in terms of spreading the outbreak. While this lockdown is affecting the livelihood of millions of peoples, considering the current status of healthcare facilities and the lack of training of healthcare professionals, Bangladesh may need to trade off its economic health by prioritising its public health in order to avoid a catastrophe. 

This might be expensive but it is the best solution the country might go for to fight the pandemic. The prime minister has already declared a Tk100,000cr stimulus package to recover from the economic cost of the lockdown. While implementing an effective lockdown, the government should also focus on distributing the stimulus package to the right people in an efficient manner.  

If these two measures – effective lockdown and proper distribution of the stimulus package is implemented properly, Bangladesh may be able to flatten what is now a rising curve and increase its economic resilience while fighting the battle against Covid-19. 

Farah Muneer is Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM).

Abdul Monem Khan is Senior Legal Counsel with a multinational company.

Programme Organised to Mark the Achievement of Dr. Jahangir Alam Khan

March 3rd, 2020 by

A programme was held to mark the achievement of the honourable member of InM Governing and General Body- Dr.  Jahangir Alam Khan, for receiving ’Ekushe Padak’ at PKSF building on 3 March 2020.  The programme was chaired by Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, Chairman, InM with Dr. Mustafa K Mujeri, Executive Director, InM; Mr Mohammad Moinuddin Abdullah, Managing Director, PKSF; other Governing and General Body members of InM; Deputy Managing Directors of PKSF and InM senior officials as attendees.  The honourable members and other audiences gave their speech in honour of Dr Jahangir Alam Khan. Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, Chairman, InM and Dr Mustafa K Mujeri, Executive Director, InM honoured Dr Khan with uttoriya and flower Bouquet.  

 

MOU with Indian Institute of Contemporary Management and Research (IICMR), India

December 24th, 2019 by

An MOU has been signed between Institution for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and Indian Institute of Contemporary Management and Research (IICMR), India in 24 December 2019. Mustafa K Mujeri, Executive Director, InM and Prof. Arup Choudhuri, Chairman signed the contract and exchanged their thoughts regarding potential areas of collaboration.